China Isn’t About to Try Its Luck With Taiwan
Chinese strategists may be gloating about the humiliating U.S. exit from Afghanistan. But they know that any attempt to seize the island by force would still be deeply risky.
Taiwan’s military won’t give up so easily.
Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/BloombergFew would dispute that America’s chaotic exit from Afghanistan has gravely damaged U.S. prestige. But the strategic implications of the debacle aren’t as obvious as some are making out. One argument that’s rapidly becoming conventional wisdom is that the mess will embolden U.S. adversaries to challenge its interests around the world.
In particular, many are predicting that China is now likelier to try and seize Taiwan by force. Asked how he would respond in the event of such an attack, President Joe Biden pushed back so strongly he mistakenly implied that the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s defense as if it were a treaty ally. (The White House swiftly backtracked and reiterated that the official U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity,” which does not say whether or not the U.S. would intervene, was still in place.)