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Editor’s Note: Mark Alexander is out with an urgent matter today, and we thought it would be worth retracing some steps back from his assertion, now 17 months ago, that Joe Biden would not be the 2024 nominee facing Donald Trump. Alexander was alone in that assertion then, but not today. He has written two subsequent pieces, “Demo Delegates Will Dump Biden,” and a follow-up, “Trump’s Prospects When Demo Delegates Dump Biden.” Alexander says that Demos have perilously underestimated Trump’s election prospects. Let us know what you think.

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I know, making this prediction 15 months before the first 2024 primary is nuts, but here it is: I believe that after the 2024 primaries conclude in June, Biden may withdraw his candidacy citing his age and obvious health issues, leaving the selection of the November Demo ticket in the hands of the delegates at the Democrat National Convention in Chicago, beginning August 19, 2024. No states will officially recognize candidates on the respective Party ticket until the convention delegates make their decision. I believe this Biden bait-and-switch deal is already done, baked into the Demo 2024 calculus.

Wild prediction? Maybe, but read on.

Joe Biden continues to insist that in 2024, “I’m going to do it again.” Biden’s spokes-parrot Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed: “I will just reiterate what the president has said many times … that the president intends to.”

Of course, Biden is the consummate “lying dog-faced pony soldier, so what is he really up to?

Despite his assertions about running against the presumed Republican nominee, Donald Trump, Biden demonstrates daily that he is on a steep dementia slope, but as long as he keeps sporting those cool Ray-Ban Aviator sunglasses, and dodging the 25th Amendment, maybe nobody will notice that in 2024 he will be 82.

So, the question of the day: Does Biden really intend to be on the presidential ballot in November of 2024? He will mount a campaign, but let me stake out this position here and now: Biden will NOT be the Demo candidate come the general election, and I suspect that in 2023, enthusiasm for his 2024 prospects will wither.

For the record, two months after Biden took office in 2021, I figured he was on his way out. Three dozen House Democrats issued a formal letter questioning his mental acuity. His bumbling, fumbling actions prompted political analyst Charles Hurt to ask, "Can anyone just tell us who the hell is running our federal government right now? … Who is the president of the United States right now?”

At that time, I speculated that Biden’s resignation bait-and-switch was baked into the cake and that Kamala Harris was going to soon replace him, given that Nancy Pelosi had already seeded the 25th Amendment legislation for Biden’s path to resign.

But the Democrat Party strategists got blindsided — they did not anticipate Harris’s popularity would tank, falling faster than a polished stone, and would soon drop even lower than Biden’s approval ratings.

Clearly, swapping Harris for Biden was no longer an option, nor would it be now if Biden steps down. Demos will have to figure out how to get her out of the way, as they did Bernie Sanders in the last two Demo primaries.

Fast forward to the date of this prediction — October 2022.

It remains my considered opinion, as I have asserted previously, that Biden is NOT going to be on the general election ballot in 2024, though he will announce that he is running and pretend to be doing just that. At some point, he will either withdraw to clear a path for his successor or intentionally default to a primary contender. Of course, a lot can happen over the next 15 months ahead of the 2024 primaries. Notably, that would also keep Kamala Harris out of the running and resolve the issue of how to dispense with her.

However, if Harris is shunned, the Demos will figure out how to retain their loyal black and brown constituents.

If Biden does not take himself out of the running before the primary, then, as I noted up top, he may do so at the conclusion of the primary and leave the selection of his successor up to his Democrat Party delegates. If he stays in the running, he could switch to a more popular and compelling vice president, then resign after being elected — if he can pull that off. (Somebody get Michelle Obama on the phone.)

Over the next 15 months, Biden has to avoid being a lame-duck president in order to retain whatever constituency he has left, so if he defaults in the primary or takes himself out after the primary, he can pitch his constituency to a successor like hair-gel boy Gavin Newsom or Robert Kennedy Jr., or perhaps Demo moderate Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on the top or bottom of the ticket, and maybe that is when Michelle Obama enters stage left.

Most important of all those constituent groups for Democrats is their female voter block — Demo strategists dependably assume women are emotionally incontinent idiots, and will, like blind lemmings, vote for the Demo nominee.

However, so polarized has Newsom’s political rhetoric become that he will inspire millions of Republican “Fear Newsom” voters in 2024, much as Donald Trump inspired millions of Democrat “Fear Trump” voters in 2020 — and they will all be back in 2024. The same is true of Kennedy and Obama, but Manchin bridges some gaps with moderates.

(Update: In March 2023, Gavin Newsom launched a “Red State Tour,” which was nothing short of a presidential campaign sweep. In October 2023, Joe Biden declared in an interview: “[Gavin Newsom] can be anything he wants. He can have the job I’m looking for.”)

Of course, another reason Biden keeps up the candidate pretense is to ensure Trump will lead the 2024 Republican primary pack. Despite all the pundit chatter to the contrary, central to the Democrats 2024 strategy is helping Trump to eclipse other Republicans who pose a greater threat to Newsom, Kennedy, et al., especially Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has proven he is a much more formidable general election candidate across political boundaries. Demos calculate that Trump will do massive fratricidal damage to the Republican Party in the primary, which they estimate will pave the way for another Democrat president. In fact, if that was Biden, even he might defeat Trump again given the amount of hate and division Trump invokes and the way national elections are now rigged. Trump’s political balance sheet is in the red, but as Biden continues to decline, that will likely change.

In fact, as Biden’s standing continues to deteriorate, it may become apparent that Democrat strategists have seriously underestimated Trump’s comeback potential.

Notably, given that Biden’s age is a major source of concern for Democrats, in 2024, Trump himself will be older than Ronald Reagan was when he left office.

All being said, there are three wild cards that may change the primary calculus above — two that put Harris in Biden’s seat before 2024 and a third that keeps Biden on the ballot.

First, the obvious: If Biden becomes more incapacitated and does not return from one of his recurring vacations, or Democrats invoke the 25th Amendment on him, she steps in.

Second, if Hunter Biden is not able to cop a backroom plea deal to short-circuit all potential indictments related to Joe Biden’s corrupt ChiCom pay-to-play schemes, which the Demos’ Leftmedia publicists covered up ahead of the last election, that could take Joe out. Some of those crimes may not be pardonable with just heavy fines, and federal prosecutors may sweep up the “Big Guy” in their dragnet of his corruption connections to Hunter.

As for the third wild card, the one that keeps Biden on the ballot?

Biden’s most sycophantic handlers, his puppeteers, have consolidated a lot of power, and if they believe they can prop him up for another term like the old Soviet Union leaders were propped up by their party power brokers long after their expiration dates, Biden’s handlers will resist allowing him to drop out.

For the record, given the bizarre politics of the last six years, and the success of the Demos’ deep state collusion to take down Trump, and then their massive bulk-mail ballot fraud strategy in 2020, most elements of which are still intact, I doubt all the upcoming midterm crystal ball presumptions predicting a “red wave” will hold.

(Update: Indeed, the midterm “Red Wave” turned into a “Red Ripple,” with Republicans barely winning the House and losing the Senate split majority — despite Biden’s low approval ratings. This appears to be more of a referendum on Trump’s prospects than Biden’s abysmal performance.)

All being said, I believe if Biden actually is the 2024 incumbent and Trump is the Republican nominee, given the hate and division the Democrat Party can muster up, Biden may actually defeat Trump again and maybe by a wider margin. Despite the fact that polls are likely to show Trump with a marginal lead over Biden, if the 2024 election is a Biden/Trump rematch, it will not be determined by which candidate voters like most, but which they dislike the least.

However, as I noted after the 2020 election, Biden’s narrow 51.3% majority of the popular vote (81,283,501), giving him 306 electoral votes, was the direct result of the Democrats’ corrupt bulk-mail ballot fraud strategy, which they will fully implement again in 2024. Though Trump received 46.9% of the popular vote (74,223,975) and 232 electoral votes, the election was closer than appearances would imply. Biden’s seven million vote margin was mostly in California and New York (precisely why the Demos want to eliminate the Electoral College), but Biden actually won the presidency by fewer than 45,000 votes in the key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.

Finally, to restate my prediction, I believe the most likely Demo strategy is for Biden to voluntarily pave a path for a younger and more charismatic successor after the primary but ahead of the convention, and then get out of the way so the delegates can revitalize the general election ticket.

(Update 1: Biden finally officially announced his 2024 candidacy in late April 2023. Though he has contenders, the Democrat National Committee is refusing to allow any presidential debates during the primary — which I believe is designed to unify support behind the candidate they choose to replace Biden at the end of the primary. Political analyst Brit Hume observed: “I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like this, where you have a distinct majority of an incumbent president’s own party saying they don’t want him to run. … The situation in the other party is nearly as grim, a former president who the majority of the country does not want to see run again.”)

(Update 2: Twelve months after publishing this assessment, both Republicans and Democrats have warmed to speculation that Biden will not be the general election candidate. Notably, however, National Review’s astute political analyst Dan McLaughlin insists that Demos will not replace Biden.)

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